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标题：Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area
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作者：Marco Buchmann
期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2009
卷号：1
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper addresses the estimation of Phillips curve equations for the euro area while employing less stringent assumptions on the functional correspondence between price ina- tion, ination expectations, and marginal costs. Expectations are not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual ination and instead derived from the European Commissions Consumer Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive ination with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on the validity of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. Moreover, the tradeo¤ between ination and real economic activity is not vertical in the short run. Non- and semiparametric estimates reveal an important nonlinearity in the sense that demand pressure on price ination is not invariant to the state of the economy as it increases considerably at times of high economic activity. Conventional linear Phillips curves cannot capture this empirical regularity. Some implications for monetary policy are discussed.
关键词：Ination; Phillips Curve; Survey Expectations; Non- and Semiparametric Econo-;metrics; Monetary Policy