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标题：Analyse der Hauptkomponenten des Wärmehaushalts brandenburgischer Wälder auf der Grundlage regionaler Klimaszenarien – Abgrenzung von Risikogebieten und Schlussfolgerungen für ein Klima-Monitoring
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作者：RIEK, W. ; KALLWEIT, R. ; RUSS, A 等
期刊名称：Waldökologie-Online
印刷版ISSN：1614-7103
出版年度：2013
期号：13
出版社：Arbeitsgemeinschaft Forstliche Standorts- und Vegetationskunde (AFSV)
摘要：In the course of global climate change expected modifications in heat balance will likely have a huge impact on the development and stability of Brandenburgian forest ecosystems. In this paper risk areas are statistically identified and regionalized. Furthermore, areas which are suitable for an ecological based climate impact monitoring are determined. The basic idea of the methodological approach is the spatiotemporal analyses of climate indicators using multivariatestatistical procedures. For risk assessment, an algorithm was developed, in which expected temporal changes until the year 2050 or 2095 (climate scenario: A1B) are set in relation to the actual spatial range of ecological heat balance indicators. In this way expected changes can be evaluated concerning their disturbance potential. The estimated disturbance potentials are presented on raster maps with a resolution of 1x 1 km. Forest ecosystems are complex in their cause-effect behavior. Under the same influence conditions various system states are possible, making prognoses difficult. Therefore, the most promising way seems to be the empirical investigation of species-specific norms of reaction and population dynamic potentials of adaption on the basis of the actual climate in special regions. From the empirical results, largescale predictions can be derived especially for the identified risk areas (predicting climate monitoring). Regions suitable for climate monitoring were indentified using a similar approach as used in deriving risk areas. For this, the differences between the actual values of ecological heat balance indicators and the respective average of the total forest area of Brandenburg in the future (decade 2090–2100) were calculated. The regions with maximum similarity to the future conditions are presented on a raster map. In further evaluation steps, the presented results will be combined with high resolution risk indicators for potential water deficiency and drought stress (100 x 100 m grid).