文章基本信息

标题：Testing the effects of crime on the Italian economy
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作者：Claudio Detotto ; Pulina Manuela
期刊名称：Economics Bulletin
电子版ISSN：1545-2921
出版年度：2010
卷号：30
期号：3
页码：2063-2074
出版社：Economics Bulletin
摘要：This paper aims at assessing the causal and temporal relationships between crime and the economic indicators related to the aggregated demand function. The case study is Italy and a quarterly frequency is used (1981:1-2005:4). A Vector Autoregressive Correction Mechanism (VECM) is employed after having assessed the integration and cointegration status of the variables under investigation. Long and short run dynamics are estimated. A Granger causality test is also implemented to establish temporal interrelationships. The main findings are that, in the short run, crime positively effects GDP and government expenditure, while has a crowding out effect on exports. In the long run, crime positively leads imports and inflation, whereas negatively investments and government expenditure