摘要:Crises in the supply of natural resources are often stimulants for beneficial change in the institutions. In
a recent paper on the evolution of federal and state water policy in the West, Getches (2001) concludes that "It
takes a crisis" to initiate water policy reform in the West. Currently, many western states are in the grips of very
severe drought. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather statistics show that in
the past year, two states ( Arizona and Colorado) suffered a rainfall that is the lowest ever recorded. Five
neighboring states (Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming, Kansas and Nebraska) are equal to, or lower than, the
lowest 10% ever recorded. This drought, coupled with an unprecedented total demand for water clearly
constitutes a crisis. However, it is unlikely that the current western drought will result in beneficial change to
western water institutions. In what follows we discuss the reasons why some crises are useful stimulants, but
also why the current drought will probably not stimulate useful change and merely increase the level of strife
among western water users.