文章基本信息

标题：Uncertainties, Knowledge, and Futures in Foresight Studies — A Case of the Industry 4.0
其他标题：Uncertainties, Knowledge, and Futures in Foresight Studies — A Case of the Industry 4.0
本地全文：下载
作者：Andrzej Magruk ; Bialystok University of Technology
期刊名称：Foresight and STI Governance
印刷版ISSN：1995-459X
电子版ISSN：2500-2597
出版年度：2020
卷号：14
期号：4
页码：20-33
DOI：10.17323/2500-2597.2020.4.20.33
出版社：National Research University Higher School of Economics
摘要：The main purpose of this publication is an attempt to treat phenomenon of uncertainty as the one of main research facility in future studies and not as the background for future research — by answering the following research question: “What is the methodical relation among the scope of the uncertainty phenomenon vs. levels of knowledge and types of the future in the foresight approach?”. The study uses the results of the analysis and criticism of the literature as the main research method. On this basis were performed deductive reasoning. Proposed by the author of the paper types of future and scope of uncertainty allowed to define the author’s scale of knowledge levels. This paper has attempted to draw together three methodological fields: uncertainty, foresight, and knowledge. Author analysed complex relations among above areas on the basis of their characteristic which are author’s extensions of existing concepts available in the literature. In the author’s opinion conclusions from the results presented in the article can be a valuable contribution to the development of the area of management in the area of future management. In management of complex systems (such as Industry 4.0), from the foresight methodological point of view, it seems relevant to determine which specific uncertainties can be managed by which classes of foresight methods, and which foresight methods by what level of knowledge, will be appropriate for the analysis of a specific types of future. According to the author, the results of research presented in the publication may be used in creating research methodology of technological foresight projects and as a complementary element of research devoted to the issues of development of modern technologies, which include Industry 4.0.
其他摘要：The main purpose of this publication is an attempt to treat phenomenon of uncertainty as the one of main research facility in future studies and not as the background for future research — by answering the following research question: “What is the methodical relation among the scope of the uncertainty phenomenon vs. levels of knowledge and types of the future in the foresight approach?”. The study uses the results of the analysis and criticism of the literature as the main research method. On this basis were performed deductive reasoning. Proposed by the author of the paper types of future and scope of uncertainty allowed to define the author’s scale of knowledge levels. This paper has attempted to draw together three methodological fields: uncertainty, foresight, and knowledge. Author analysed complex relations among above areas on the basis of their characteristic which are author’s extensions of existing concepts available in the literature. In the author’s opinion conclusions from the results presented in the article can be a valuable contribution to the development of the area of management in the area of future management. In management of complex systems (such as Industry 4.0), from the foresight methodological point of view, it seems relevant to determine which specific uncertainties can be managed by which classes of foresight methods, and which foresight methods by what level of knowledge, will be appropriate for the analysis of a specific types of future. According to the author, the results of research presented in the publication may be used in creating research methodology of technological foresight projects and as a complementary element of research devoted to the issues of development of modern technologies, which include Industry 4.0.
关键词：uncertainty; knowledge; futures; foresight; method; Industry 4.0