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标题：ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region
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作者：Muhammad Adnan Abid ; Mansour Almazroui ; Fred Kucharski 等
期刊名称：npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
电子版ISSN：2397-3722
出版年度：2018
卷号：1
期号：1
页码：1-7
DOI：10.1038/s41612-017-0003-7
出版社：Nature Publishing Group
摘要：The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is considered to be responsible for rainfall predictability in many regions. Some of its regional teleconnections; such as over the Arabian Peninsula in boreal summer (June–August) season; are not well studied. Therefore; in this paper; the relationship between the summer seasonal mean rainfall and ENSO is analyzed with the aid of a 15-member ensemble of simulations using the Saudi-King Abdulaziz University (KAU) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) for the period 1981–2015. The southwestern peninsula rainfall is linked to the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the central-eastern pacific region. This relationship is established through an atmospheric teleconnection which shows upper-level convergence anomalies over the southern Arabian Peninsula compensating the central-eastern Pacific upper-level divergence anomalies for the warm ENSO phase; and vice-versa for the cold Phase. The upper-level convergence over the southern Arabian Peninsula leads to sinking motion; low-level divergence and consequently to reduced rainfall in the warm phase; while reverse happens in the cold phase. The correlation coefficient between the observed area-averged Niño3.4 index and a Southwestern Arabian Peninsula Rainfall Index (SARI) is −0.43 (statistically significant at 95%). Overall; model shows a potential predictability (PP) of 0.53 for the SARI region. Predictability during El Niño is higher than during La Niña events. This is not only because of a stronger signal; but also noise reduction contributes to the increase of PP in El Niño compared to that of La Niña years.