摘要:It is very difficult to predict future development of a scientific discipline,especially if it is a discipline of social science.This paper sketches the development of demography so far and its major features,in order to perceive the starting point of the future development and expected tendencies.A few strongholds of the forthcoming development directions are discussed as well,suggesting that they might be the key ones in the further expansion of this discipline.
其他摘要:Predvideti budući razvoj neke nauke je veoma teško,posebno kada je u pitanju društvena nauka.U ovom radu se u osnovnim crtama definišu dosadašnji razvoj demografije i njene glavne karakteristike,kako bi se sagledala polazna osnova budućeg razvoja i očekivane tendencije.Takođe se navodi nekoliko uporišta predstojećih razvojnih tokova koji mogu biti ključni u daljem snaženju ove naučne discipline.