文章基本信息

标题：The Estimation of Long-run Relationship between Serbian and German Economic Growth
其他标题：Ocena dugoročne međuzavisnosti ekonomskog rasta Srbije i Nemačke
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作者：Ivan Nikolić ; Marina Zoroja
期刊名称：Industrija
印刷版ISSN：0350-0373
电子版ISSN：2334-8526
出版年度：2016
卷号：44
期号：2
页码：55-66
DOI：10.5937/industrija44-10016
语种：English
出版社：Economics institute, Belgrade
摘要：Germany has always had an essential influence on Serbia's economic development.Today,Germany is Europe's economic and political superstar so this is even more pronounced.Hence,the aim of this paper is to explore the fundamental causal relationship between German and Serbian economy.In doing so,after the introductory part,where we emphasized interconnection in terms of investment,foreign trade,employment,new technologies etc.,we are extending our study using quarterly 2004q1-2015q2 GDP data of both Serbia and Germany to estimate the Vector Error Correction model(VECM).The results suggest that there is co-integration between Serbia's and Germany's economic growth.The statistically significant negative coefficient on ??̂??−1 indicates that Serbian GDP responds to a temporary disequilibrium between the Germany and Serbia.On the other hand,Germany does not appear to respond to a disequilibrium between the two economies;the t-ratio on ??̂??−1 is statistically insignificant.These results support the idea that economic conditions in Serbia depend on those in Germany incomparably more than conditions in Germany depend on Serbia. Despite a solid long-term impact,there is not short run causality running from GerGDP to SrbGDP.
其他摘要：Nemačka,od vajkada,trasira srpski ekonomski razvoj.Pošto je postala ekonomska i politička "super zvezda"Evrope ova njena uloga je danas još izraženija.Cilj ovog rada je da istraži upravo fundamentalnu ekonomsku vezu između Nemačke i Srpske privrede.Nakon uvodnog dela u kome smo se osvrnuli na investicionou aktivnost,spoljnotrgovinsku razmenu, broj zaposlenih,nove tehnologije itd.ocenili smo VEC model,sa kvartalnim BDP podacima u periodu 2004q1-2015q2.Dobijeni rezultati potvrđuju kointegracionu(dugoročnu)vezu između srpskog i nemačkog ekonomskog rasta.Statistički signifikantna negativna vrednost koeficijenta ??̂??−1 ukazuje na to da srpski BDP reaguje na kvartalnu korekciju neravnoteže između Nemačke i Srbije.S druge strane,to se ne događa i sa nemačke strane jer je t-racio kod ??̂??−1 statistički beznačajan.Time je potvrđena teza da ekonomski uslovi u Nemačkoj predodređuju dinamiku ekonomske aktivnosti u Srbiji,a ne obratno.Uprkos čvrstom dugoročnom uticaju,u kratkom roku nije statistički potvrđen uticaj nemačke konkjunture na srpski BDP.
关键词：VEC model;GDP;Germany;Serbia;economic growth.
其他关键词：VEC model;BDP;Nemačka;Srbija;ekonomski rast.