文章基本信息

标题：The Design of Forecasting System Used for Prediction of Electro-Motion Spare Parts Demands as an Improving Tool for an Enterprise Management
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作者：Peter Kačmáry ; Dušan Malindžák ; Ján Spišák 等
期刊名称：Management Systems in Production Engineering
电子版ISSN：2450-5781
出版年度：2019
卷号：27
期号：4
页码：242-249
DOI：10.1515/mspe-2019-0038
语种：English
出版社：De Gruyter Open
摘要：This article describes the design of a simple forecasting system and its practical application to predict the sporadic needs for a spare part. The article shows new approach already implemented in the special servicing and production company in Slovakia and its results during a short period of performance after its implementation. Such a proposed model can be a part of the purchase planning of spare parts within the company’s logistics system. In some companies, the material flow of spare parts is dominant element in terms of logistics costs. Their management is therefore important for cost optimization, customer satisfaction and market sustainability in a competitive environment. The article, in its introductory part, provides an overview of similar practical solutions within the research of this topic, but many models are designed to be applied in a global market environment and predict the amount of spare parts needed in different industries. However, these models are difficult to use for the needs of a small enterprise, because the main problem lies in the time of a spare part demand rather than its quantity. If there is a need for a specific spare part, which costs several hundred or thousands of euros, but the consumption is only a few pieces per year or more than a year, the time prediction of required spare parts is therefore crucial.
关键词：forecast; spare parts; time series; order; model