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标题：Transfer function and intervention models for the study of Brazilian inflationary process
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作者：Maria Emília Camargo ; Walter Priesnitz Filho ; Angela Isabel dos Santos Dullius 等
期刊名称：African Journal of Business Management
印刷版ISSN：1993-8233
出版年度：2010
卷号：4
期号：5
页码：578-582
语种：English
出版社：Academic Journals
摘要：In this paper, the dynamics of the Brazilian inflationary process have been investigated using transfer function models in January, 1980 - December, 1993, considering the major determinants of inflation: monetary base, wages, federal debt, rate of interest, and rate of exchange. The effects of these exogenous variables and the intervention variables that represent structural changes and/or external shocks provoked by stabilizing plans on the inflation rate have been analyzed. The results showed that if the exogenous variables are brought under control then the inflationary process too. As a final comment, we are led to believe that the inertial component of the inflation rate is relatively low enough to be used as a guide for bringing stability to the price level. Since the inertial coefficient is much less than unity, if the exogenous variables are brought under control then inflation should subside gradually to about half of its value each month that passes. Governmental controls of the price level should be avoided since they disrupt expectations and inevitably lead to higher inflation rates.
关键词：Transfer function;inflationary process;macroeconomic variables